Introduction

The concept of resilience has been widely recognized as central to increasing the capacity of communities to manage the risks to which they are exposed. Yet, there is no clear consensus on what constitutes resilience in emergency response systems, how it can be measured, or how it can be developed and sustained. This book examines resilience from the perspective of managing complex systems in metropolitan regions that are exposed to multiple risks, often simultaneously. Specifically, it will propose a theoretical framework supported by methods of measurement and analysis of resilience that can be used to inform policy and practice.

The book’s origins are many, but most directly, the analyses included in this set of essays are based on lively discussions generated by a workshop on Managing Extreme Events: Transatlantic Perspectives held at the University of Pittsburgh, March 3-4, 2006. The workshop, sponsored by the European Center of Excellence, University of Pittsburgh in cooperation with the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Pittsburgh, the Leiden University Crisis Research Center, and the Swedish National Defence College, focused particularly on the growing risk of extreme events in metropolitan regions on both sides of the Atlantic.

The book will consist of five parts. The first part, Resilience in Theory and Practice, will examine the different approaches to resilience as the concept has evolved over the last fifteen years, noting specifically the contribution made by the theoretical framework of complex adaptive systems and computational modeling. The second part, The Shift to Resilience from Command and Control Strategies, will assess the need for policy change after the demonstrated breakdown of command and control strategies in catastrophic events, and the search for more effective, less costly methods of managing risk. The third part, Resilience in Real-Time, will analyze the role of resilience in two actual events, the 7 July 2005 London Bombings when resilience was demonstrated through the rapid response of the authorities to a deliberate terrorist act, and 29 August 2005 Hurricane Katrina when the absence of resilience led to the collapse of the U.S intergovernmental emergency response system. A third essay will discuss the benefits and limits of resilience in extreme events. In Part 4, Sustaining Resilience over Time, three essays address policies, technical and organizational systems to maintain resilience as a basic component of managing extreme events in democratic societies. Part 5, The Continuing Search for Resilience, concludes the book with a look toward the future, acknowledging the concepts, skills, and systems that are needed to manage extreme events in a dynamic, global world.

This book will make a significant contribution to developing a socio-technical approach to managing extreme events by integrating a conceptual framework of complex adaptive systems with rigorous methods of measurement and modeling. The resulting insights into the design of socio-technical networks, their evolution over time under different contexts, and the requirements for sustainability will inform both theory and practice in this critical policy area.

Part 1: Resilience in Theory and Practice.

Chapter 1. Resilience and Risk: Current Concepts, Measurement, and Strategies for Managing Extreme Events.
L. Comfort, A. Boin, and C. Demchak.

This introductory chapter would briefly review the theoretical approaches to resilience, its importance in managing risk, and its emergence as the product of a complex adaptive system that uses technology appropriately to support human and organizational decision making in uncertain conditions. Such an approach requires a rigorous analysis of the components of resilience in current metropolitan regions as well as effective means of measuring and sustaining resilience in practice over time.

Chapter 2. Vulnerability of Large-Scale Systems.
Arjen Boin

Chapter 3: Between Fear and Complacency: Achieving Watchfulness in Extreme Events.
Todd M. Laporte

Part 2:The Shift to Resilience from Command and Control

Chapter 4: Policy Change after Catastrophic Events and Prospects for Resilience
Thomas A. Birkland

Chapter 5: Noticing Unknowns in Self-Surprising Systems
Chris C. Demchak

Chapter 6: The Changing Policy Environment for Managing Risk
Alasdair Roberts

Part 3: Resilience in Real-time

Chapter 7: Rapid Adaptation to Threat: The London Bombings of 7 July 2005
David Alexander

Chapter 8: The Lack of Resilience under Threat: The Collapse of Intergovernmental Response System in Hurricane Katrina
Louise Comfort

Chapter 9: Failing Gracefully: The Institutional Messiness of Resilience
Michel van Eeten , Mark de Bruijne, Emery Roe, Paul Schulman

Part 4: Sustaining Resilience over Time

Chapter 10: Policies and Plans for Longterm Crisis Management: The Case of Avian Flu
Claude Gilbert

Chapter 11: Increasing Resilience through Transatlantic Collaboration
Mark Rhinard

Chapter 12: Developing Technical Networks to Increase Organizational Resilience
Taieb Znati, Louise Comfort, and Daniel Mosse

Part 5: The Continuing Search for Resilience in Managing Risk

Chapter 13. Improving Skills, Tools, and Measurement in Managing Extreme Events
L. Comfort, A. Boin, and C. Demchak